Ndumva nsa n’aho ndeba filimi ya James Bond. Ahantu runaka hafi ya Moscow, Perezida w’Uburusiya ari hejuru ku rubuga mu kiganiro n’umunyamakuru abazwa ku byangijwe n’intambara.
Umunyamakuru wandika inkuru ze kuri murandasi aributsa Putin ko yari yavuze ko nyuma yo gutera igisasu kirimbuzi cya nikleyere (nucleaire, nuclear), Abarusiya bazajya mu ijuru.
Umunyamakuru n’icyizere cyinshi, arabaza Putin ati “Nta mpamvu yo kwihuta cyane ngo tugere aho, si byo?”
Nyuma rero habaho umutuzo udasanzwe w’igihe kirekire. Amasaha arindwi nta we ubumbura umunwa ngo arakopfora.
Umunyamakuru na none ati “Ukuntu warumye gihwa birantera ubwoba.”
Mu gasuzuguro kenshi, Putin aramusubiza ati “Burya bwose urya ni wo wari umugambi wanjye. Ni cyo nari ngamije kuva mbere.”
Niba bitagusekeje, ihangane!!! Iyi si filimi yakiniwe Holywood byitezwe ko yaba ifite umusozo mwiza w’ibyishimo.
Ibyabaye mu mezi akabaka icyenda ashize ni yo kinamico ubwayo yateje imibabaro idafite uko yasobanurwa ku gihugu cya Ukraine ndetse benshi ubu bumva ko isi isatira ihangana ryifashishije intwaro kirimbuzi kurusha igihe icyo ari cyo cyose kindi uhereye ku ntungunda n’urwikekwe rwatewe n’ibisasu bya misile kirimbuzi leta zunze ubumwe z’Abasoviyeti (URSS) zashinze muri Cuba aherekeye USA mu myaka isaga 60 ishize.
Ubu se inyandiko z’iyi kinamico ziragenda zite?
Byinshi byaterwa n’igisubizo cy’iki kibazo: Ni ku kihe kigero Vladmir Putin yiteguyeho kujya kurangiza intambara yashoje ayitsinze cyangwa ingabo ze zikayamanika atsindiwe muri Ukraine?
Nuramuka usomye na none amwe magambo agize imbwirwaruhame yagejeje ku gihugu cye tariki ya 24 Gashyantare, iyo yavuze nyuma yo gutanga itegeko ryo gutera Ukraine, ushobora gusanga ashobora gukora icyo ari cyo cyose.
Aha Vladmir Putin yagize ati “Na none aka kanya muri amwe mu magambo y’ingenzi- akomeye cyane- kuri abo bose bashobora baziyumvamo ugushaka kwivanga mu bikorwa turimo. Abo bose bagerageza kwitambika no kuzana ibikangisho ku gihugu cyacu ndetse n’abantu ndagira ngo mbabwire ngo bitonde babe maso: Igisubizo cy’u Burusiya kizihuta kandi ingaruka kizateza ntizari zaboneke na rimwe mu mateka.”
Hanze y’u Burusiya, “ingaruka mutarabona na rimwe mu mateka” zasobanuwe cyane nk’intambara y’intwaro kirimbuzi zifite ubumara bwa nikeleyeri. No mu mezi yakurikiye, izo nduru zarakomeje.
Mu kwezi kwa Mata, Perezida Putin yavuze ko ashobora “kwitaba yihuse igihe cyose haramuka hagize umuntu ugerageza kwitambika no gushyiraho iterabwobwoba ry’ibihano ku Burusiya. Dufite imbunda zose dukeneye ngo ibi tubigereho.”
Mu kwezi kwa Nzeri, yongereye umubare w’ingabo ze. Mu cyumweru gishize, ari imbere y’imbaga ku rubuga rwa Valdai Debating, Perezida Putin yoherezaga ibimenyetso bivangavanze. Yahakanye impamvu cyangwa ubushake ubwo ari bwo bwose bwo kuba yakoresha intwaro kirimbuzi muri Ukraine.
Yagize ati “Nta mpamvu tubona. Nta mpamvu ihari yaba iya politiki cyangwa iya gisirikare.”
Gusa nyuma y’impaka zakomezaga kuhaba, byasanzwe ko zari impuha nsa.
“Hari ibyago ko Uburusiya buzakoresha intwaro kirimbuzi. Ntibuzazikoresha buhanganye na Ukraine, ahubwo buzazifashisha buhanganye n’ibihugu byo mu Burengerazuba,” nkuko bivugwa na Dmitry Suslov, umwe mu bagize Akanama k’Uburusiya Gashinzwe Ububanyi n’Amahanga n’Umutekano.
Bwana Suslov akomeza agira ati “Hagize igisasu kimwe kigwa ku bikorwaremezo by’igisirikare cy’Uburusiya, twahita dukora igerageza ryakwandikwa mu mateka risa na Har-Magedoni y’intwaro kirimbuzi. Twifashishije inyigisho zitaziguye z’intwaro kirimbuzi z’Uburusiya, Uburusiya bwatangiza igitero gikomeye bugabye kuri Amerika n’abafatanyabikorwa bayo bo muri OTAN byihuse cyane bishoboka.”
Inshuro gusa tuzabona amabombe y’Uburengerazuba atewe ku gice cyacu, tutitaye na gato ngo afite imbunda ku kigero iki n’iki, nta kabuza, nta gushidikanya, isi yose izapfa.”
Ese ibi ni ugutera ubwoba gusa? Yego rwose.
Cyangwa hari ukuri kuri muri aya magambo?
Si ko mbyizera cyane.
Dushyize ku ruhande kurya guceceka kwa perezida (ukuri ni uko byari ikinamico) n’ibibazo bidafitiwe ibisubizo bya vuba aha by’Uburusiya, ntekereza ko bidashoboka ko Kremlin [Ibiro bya Perezida w’Uburusiya] yaba ifite imigambi yo yo gukoresha ingufu za nikeleyeri z’intambara ya Ukraine ubu.
Ibi ndabishingira kuri izi mpamvu 5:
1.Amatora yo hagati muri manda muri USA
Mu gihe amatora yo hagati muri manda yegereza muri Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, uruhande rwa Kremlin ruzaba rubizi ko ishyaka rya Republican rifite amahirwe yo gutsindira ubuyobozi bwa Congress.
Mu ntango z’uku kwezi, umuyobozi w’Inteko Ishinga Amategeko Kevin McCarthy yatanze impuruza abashingamategeko bo mu ishyaka rya Republican batazigera bemera “icyo ari cyo cyose’’ gusa kubera Ukraine nibaramuka bongeye kugira ubwiganze mu bashingamategeko.
Nubwo bitagaragara neza niba ubufasha bwa USA kuri Ukraine buzagira icyo bugabanukaho ku kigero kinini bitewe n’intsinzi y’Abarepubulikani, Kremlin izakirana yombi icyemezo cyo kugabanya imfashanyo ya gisirikare Amerika igenera Kyiv.
2. Ibihe by’ubutita bwo mu Burayi
Bigaragara ko Vladmir Putin akomeje gukora imibare ye, mu gihe Uburusiya buhagarika gukomeza kohereza gaze mu bihugu by’u Burayi, ndetse n’ibihe by’ubukonje bizaba bibi kurushaho ku mugabane w’u Burayi hiyongereyeho kuzamuka no guhenda kw’imibereho, ibintu bituma leta zo mu Burengerazuba zigomba byanga bikunda kugera kugira amasezerano zicara zikagirana na Kremlin: Kugabanya inkunga bitera Ukraine na ho Uburusiya bwo bugatanga ingufu.
Kugeza ubu, Uburayi buragaragara ko bwiteguye neza ibihe by’ubukonje kurusha Moscow byari biteganijwe.
Ukwezi k’Ukwakira ntikwabayemo ubukonje cyane nk’ibisanzwe kandi kwiyongera kwa gaze kamere y’ibisukika yabitswe ubu yuzuye kandi na none ibiciro bya gaze i Burayi byaragabanutse.
Gusa ibipimo by’ubushyuhe biramutse bigabanutse, igitutu na cyo gishobora kwiyongera. Cyane mu gihugu cya Ukraine, aho igisirikare cy’Uburusiya kimaze iminsi gitera ibikorwaremezo byacyo.
3. Gukusanyiriza hamwe umutungo kamere ngo hakorwe operasiyo idasanzwe ya gisirikare
Mu minsi ya vuba aha twabonye Vladmir Putin afata ibyemezo asaba ubukungu bwose bw’Uburusiya n’inganda ngo zigire uruhare mu “gikorwa [operasiyo] kidasanzwe cye cya gikirikare.”
Mu buryo bwinshi bisa n’ibyumvikana nk’aho igihugu cyose kimaze mu ntambara igihe kirekire. Ikimenyetso, wenda, ko Kremlin yitegura intambara yo gupfa no gukira muri Ukraine.
4. Kwangirika n’ibihombo ku mpande zombi
Amahame y’intambara y’ubutita na n’ubu asa n’aho ari ikintu cyemewe n’amategeko kugeza uyu munsi. Bitekerezwa ko nihaba uruhande rumwe rwaka umuriro, uruhande rwa kabiri ruzasubiza uko bisabwa kandi buri wese azabisaruramo urupfu. Nta ruhande ruzitwa abatsinzi mu ntambara yifashishije intwaro kirimbuzi. Ibyo Putin arabizi neza.
Ibi byose ni ku musingi wo kwizera ko nta ntwaro kirimbuzi za nikeleyeri zizabaho mu ntambara ya Ukraine. Gus anta gushidikanya, hari ikibazo. Ibyo gushyira mu gaciro ukoresheje inyurabwenge [logic] byayoyotse ku ya 24 Gashyantare, ndetse intambara si ngombwa ngo ikurikire icyerekezo runaka.
5. Gufata ukwihagaraho kwa Ukraine nk’umutwaro muto
“Operasiyo idasanzwe” ya Putin ntabwo iragenda nk’uko umugambi we uri. Icyagombaga gufata iminsi cyangwa ibyumweru bike ubu kimaze gufata amezi runaka. Kremlin iragaragara rwose nk’itarafatanye uburemere bukomeye ukwihagararaho kwa Ukraine. Kuba Uburengerazuba bwaha ikiganza Kyiv ndetse n’inkubiri y’ibihano mpuzamahanga Uburusiya bwagahanganye na byo.
Hamwe no kwemeza ku ntango ko “abasirikare kabuhariwe’’ bonyine ari bo bazarwana, Perezida Putin byarangiye atangaje ibyo “kwandika abasirikare b’inyongera.” Uretse ibyo kandi, abasirikare b’Uburusiya bagiye batakaza ibice bigaruriye mu byumweru bya vuba aha bivuye ku bitero bya Ukraine.
Icyakora ni gake uzumva cyangwa ukabona Putin yemeye ko yakoze amakosa. Ubu, biraboneka ko afite umugambi wo gukomeza intambara hanyuma agahagurukana ikintu ashobora kwita intsinzi.
Iradukunda Fidele Samson
