Tekereza nk’ubu uri mu irushanwa riri guca kuri televiziyo. Uri mu banyamahirwe bagiye gutsindira imodoka nshyashya gusa kugira ngo uyihabwe, ugomba guhitamo umwe mu miryango itatu irimo urufunguzo rukugeza kuri iyo modoka.
Inyuma y’iyo miryango ibiri isigaye ho hari igihembo kidashamaje ndetse kitagira uwo gishimisha mu by’ukuri- iki na cyo nta kindi, ni ihene.
Tuvuge, ni urugero uhisemo umuryango wa kabiri, ni umuryango wo hagati ugutera gutekereza ko ari wo ushobora kuba ufite urufunguzo rukugeza ku gihembo nyamukuru.
Ku bw’amahirwe yawe, umunyamakuru uyoboye iri rushanwa arashaka kugufasha akubwira akanunu n’akabanga kagufasha kumenya ikiri nyuma y’umuryango umwe kuko we azi urufunguzo rw’aho imodoka zirushanirwa ziherereye, mbese azi ahari imodoka n’ahari ihene.
Bityo, afunguye umuryango wa gatatu, maze wisangiyemo ihene imaze igihe kirekire ifungiwemo inashonje yabaye umunahi.
Muri za 80 Marilyn yafatwaga nk’umuntu ufite ubwenge kurusha abandi ku isi
Uyu munyamakuru uyoboye irushanwa akubajije aguhitishamo ati: “Ese uraguma kuri uyu muryango wa 3 wari wahisemo cyangwa wawuhindura ukajya ku muryango nomero ya 1?
Aha utangiye gutekereza cyane ubizi neza ko usigaranye amahitamo abiri kandi rimwe muri yo rishobora kuba ari ryo ku ijanisha rya 50 ukegukana imodoka ndetse na 50 yo gutahana ihene.
Ariko utekereje neza cyane kurushaho, nk’uko Marylin vos Savant yabigenje, uri hafi ya bibiri bya gatatu by’amahirwe yo gutsindira imodoka.
Ibi byose kandi bishingiye ku kintu cyoroshye cyangwa gikomeye nko kumenya guhitamo kimwe mu bintu bibiri ariko byombi bishoboka bizwi nk’isesengura ry’ibishoboka (probability analysis).
Ubwenge buhambaye bwa Vos Savant bwanditswe muri Guinness des Records
Marilyn vos Savant, ubu ufite imyaka 76 y’amavuko, yabaye umwanditsi w’igihe kirekire w’inkuru z’uruhererekane zacaga mu kinyamakuru nk’igice cyihariye zitwaga “Ask Marilyn,” aho yasubizaga ibibazo, gufindura ibisa n’ibisakuzo n’amahurizo ndetse akanandika atanga ibitekerezo ku ngingo zitandukanye zo mu buzima bwa buri munsi.
Uyu kandi ni umwanditsi w’ibitabo by’inkuru ndetse, ndetse akaba yarabaye umushoramari w’igihe kirekire. Gusa mu bwana bwe, yari afite izina rindi, ndetse ritangaje kurushaho.
Nyuma yo guzubiza ibibazo bike mu bizamini bikorwa hafatwa ibipimo by’ubwenge (IQ/QI), yabonye amanota 228 muri bimwe mu bizamini, akaba amanota yikubye kabiri urugero ruhanitse rusanzwe.
Igitabo cya Guinness des Records cyandikwamo abantu n’ibintu bifite uduhigo abandi batarageraho cyangwa bihariye cyamushyize ku rutonde kuva mu mwaka wa 1985 kugeza mu wa 1989 nk’umugore ufite ubwenge bwinshi bwo ku kigero kitari bwigere kibaho kurusha abandi bose bamenyekanye.
Kubera iyi mpamvu, yiswe “umuntu ufite ubwenge bwinshi buhambaye kurusha abandi ku isi’’ (World’s Highest IQ).
Vos Savant ni umukobwa ukomoka ku bimukira b’i Burayi babaga mu mujyi wa St. Louis, Missouri, hagati muri Leta Zunze za Amerika ari na ho yavukiye muri Kanama 1946.
Yumvaga ko abantu bakwiye kwitwa amazina y’ababyeyi be bombi. Ni uko ubwo yari inkumi yafashe rimwe mu mazina ya nyina ari ryo Savant, mu buryo butangaje kandi buhuriranye risobanura “umuntu w’umunyabwenge” mu rurimi rw’Igifaransa.
Uko yagendaga yimuka azamuka mu mashuri, Savant uyu yaratsindaga atsinda cyane isomo ry’imibare na siyansi mu ishuri akerekana ubuhanga buhambaye muri aya masomo ugererenije n’imyaka yari afite.
Ubwo yari afite imyaka 10, yatsinze amasuzuma y’ibipimo by’ubwenge (IQ) yabeyere mu mashuri ya Stanford-Binet na Hoeflin’s Mega, aha hakaba ari ho yaboneye amanota 228 ari na bwo yahise yandikwa mu gitabo cy’abanyaduhigo cya Guinness.
Iki gihe ibisubizo yatanze ku bibazo yabajijwe n’ibizamini yatsinze, byatumye agaragazwa nk’uwari ufite n’ubushobozi bw’ubwonko bw’umuntu ufite imyaka 23 y’amavuko.
Kuva icyo gihe, yafatwaga nk’umwana muto, ibintu byatumye ubu bwenge bwe butamuhindurira ubuzima. Igihe yari umwangavu, avuga ko yafashaga mu iduka ry’ababyeyi be ariko anakunda cyane gusoma.
Aho kwishimira kujya kwiga muri kaminuza ikomeye ya Ivy League yo muri Amerika, yihitiyemo kujya kwiga ishami ry’iyigantekerezo ‘filozofiya’ muri Kaminuza Nkuru ya Washington, mu mujyi yavukiyemo ya Saint-Louis.
Hagati aho ariko, yaretse amasomo ye ibyo kwiga abivamo maze ahugira mu bucuruzi n’ishoramari ry’umuryango we wacuruzaga mu by’imari n’imigabane.
Icyakora ubwamamare yagize ubwo yatsindaga ikizamini cy’ibipimo bya IQ bwaramukurikiranye.
Umugabo wa gatatu Vos Savant yashakanye ni Robert Jarvik, ni umwe mu bakoze umutima wa mbere w’umukorano, uzwi nka Jarvik-7.
Mu myaka ya za 1970, yabonye amafaranga ahagije yo gutera inkunga icyifuzo n’inzozi yagize akiri umwana zo kuba umwanditsi. Yitabiriye amarushanwa n’ibizamini by’ibipimo by’ubwenge nk’ibizwi nka Omni IQ na Quiz Contest hanyuma akomeza akazi ke k’ubuvanganzo anandika inkuru mu binyamakuru bitandukanye.
Nyuma yo kwimukira i New York, yagiye agaragara mu kiganiro cya David Letterman n’icya Joe Franklin. Kenshi muri ibi bibazo yakiraga ibibazo bimubaza icyo ubwenge ari cyo.
Rimwe yasubije Joe Franklin ati “Ubwenge bushobora kuba ubushobozi bwawe bwo kubyaza umusaruro ubumenyi bwawe.’’
Nubwo yari yaranditswe muri Guinness des Records nk’umugore ufite ubwenge bwishi ku isi, Marylin vos Savant ntiyemeraga IQ ubwayo nk’igipimo cy’ubwenge bw’umuntu, ikaba ari yo mpamvu yabwiye Joe Franklin ati: "Icyo IQ ishobora gukora gusa ni ugupima ubushobozi bwawe bwo gukoresha ubwo bwenge bwawe.”
Muri icyo gihe, Savant yatangije ikiganiro “Ask Marilyn” (Baza Marilyn),cyakurikiranwaga mu gihugu cyose gicishijwe mu kinyamakuru Parade no mu bindi binyamakuru bitari bike.
Kwica igisakuzo
Ikibazo ku guhitamo hagati y’umuryango warimo ihene n’uwarimo imodoka nticyari gishya ubwo cyabonekaga mu nkuru ya vos Savant.
Kuva mu myaka mirongo mbere y’aha, cyari kizwi nk’ "ikibazo ca Monty Hall", bafatiye ku izina ry’uwakoraga ikiganiro cyo kuri televiziyo yo muri Amerika "Let’s Make a Deal", cyacishwagamwo ibibazo bisa n’iki.
Umwe mu bashakashatsi n’umuhanga mu mibare, Steve Selvin, , yatangaje ibisubizo mu kinyamakuru cya kaminuza ya American Statician mu mwaka wa 1975.
Umukino wa Monty Hall wacaga ’live’ kuri televiziyo
Gusa igisubizo cya vos Savant cyasaga n’icyatangajwe na Selvin ni cyo cyabyaye impaka zikomeye zateje impagarara.
Dore uko igisubizo cya vos Savant cyari kimeze, ari na ko cyari kimeze neza neza nk’icya Prof. Selvin:
“Nta gushidikanya, ni byo ugomba guhindura. Umuryango wa mbere ufite 1/3 cy’amahirwe yo gutsinda mu gihe umuryango wa kabiri ufite amahirwe angana na 2/3 by’amahirwe yo gutsinda. Ubwo ni bwo ni bwo buryo bwiza kurusha ubundi bwo kumenya icyabaye. Tuvuge ko hari nk’imiryango miliyoni hanyuma wowe ugahitamo uwa mbere muri iyo. Uyoboye iri rushanwa ari na we uzi ikiri inyuma y’umuryango hanyuma agerageza gufungura imiryango yose uretse umuryango nomero 777.777. Ari wowe se ubwo ntiwahita uhindura umuryango ako kanya?’’
Nyuma y’aho vos Savant yavuze ko yakiriye hafi amabaruwa 10.000 arimo amabaruwa 1.000 yavuye ku balimu ba kaminuza n’abigiraga kubona impamyabumenyi z’ikirenga mu masomo atandukanye, nk’uko ikinyamakuru New York Times cyabitangaje mu nkuru yacyo yo mu 1991.
Robert Sachs, porofeseri muri Kaminuza Nkuru ya George Mason iri i Virginia yaravuze ati: “Byose wabyishe! Nk’umunyamwuga mu mibare, ntewe impungenge n’uburyo rubanda muri rusange nta bumenyi bafite mu mibare. Dufashe wemere ko wibeshye, hanyuma ubutaha ujye ubanza witonde ushishoze kurushaho.”
Vos Savant yamaze igihe kitari gito arwana kandi ahagaze ashimitse ku gisubizo cye nubwo benshi bamunengaga banamuhinyura.
E. Ray Bobo, umwalimu w’imibare muri Kaminuza ya Georgetown yaranditse ati: “Waribeshye cyane! Hakenewe abahanga mu mibare bangahe barakaye kugira ngo wemere kuva ku izima uhindure igisubizo cyawe?’’
Gusa igisubizo cya Vos Savant ni ukuri igihe cyose umunyamakuru yerekanye ikiri inyuma y’umuryango utari wo maze agatanga amahirwe yo kuwuhindura ukavuga undi. Ni yo mpamvu bene iki kibazo gishyirwa mu cyiciro cy’ibibazi bishobora gutangwaho ibisubizo byinshi.
Mu guhitamo umuryango, utangira irushanwa ufite amahirwe angana na 1/3 cyo gutsinda mu gihe 2/3 by’ayo biri mu biganza by’umunyamakuru. Ushobora kuba wahisemo umuryango nyawo, ariko unafite 33% y’amahirwe yo gutsinda.
Rimwe na rimwe, Monty Hall yemereraga abarushanwa amafaranga mu kubashuka ngo bagume ku byo bahisemo ubwa mbere bigatuma batsindwa
Iyo umunyamakuru yerekanye igisubizo kitari cyo, uramutse uri uhindura amahitamo yawe, wiyongereraho kimwe cya gatatu cy’amahirwe yo gutsinda maze ukagira 66%.
Ikosa rikunda kubaho ni ukwibwira ko ufite 50% y’amahirwe muri ako kanya, kuko hari icyamaze kuvamo (urugi rwa mbere rwafunguwe) bituma wibwira ko byazana ikintu gishya.
Gufungura umuryango ntibisobanura ko uhita utsindira iyi modoka, ahubwo bikongerera gusa amahirwe, kuko hariho kimwe cyamaze kuvamo, iki na cyo kikaba ari uko urugi rumwe rwafunguwe kandi rukaba rutari urufite imfunguzo z’imodoka ahubwo ari urufungura ahari ihene.
Ibi byerekanywe inshuro nyinshi. Nyuma y’imyaka mike, BBC yitabiriye isuzumabumenyi aho abanyeshuri bo kuri kaminuza ya Cardiff bagabanijwemo amatsinda abiri bamwe baba abanyamakuru, abandi na baba abarushanwa.
Abahinduye ibisubizo byabo bari bafite amahirwe inshuro zikubye kabiri ugereranije n’abandi, kuko muri 30 bahisemo guhindura, 18 batsindiye iyo modoka. Ibi bisobanura ko, hari amahirwe yo ku rugero rwa 60% yo gutsinda. Hagati aho, muri 50 bahisemo kuguma ku bisubizo byabo bya mbere, 11 bonyine ni bo babitoye bagwa ku gisubizo nyacyo, ku kigero cya 36%.
Mu myaka ya 1980, Marilyn vos Savant yafatwaga nk’umuntu wa mbere ufite ubwenge bwinshi cyane ku isi yose
Vos Savant yakiriye amabaruwa menshi amunnyega aruta kure ay’abamusaba imbabazi gusa imwe mu yo yabonye ni iya Prof. Sachs wanditse agira ati: “Ubu nicishije bugufi. Mu kwigaye, niyemeje gusubiza abantu bose banyandikiye banyiyamiriza banenga. Ndumva ko ibi ari ibintu byangije isura yanjye bikaba binanteye isoni mu mwuga wanjye.”
Hari abandi na bo babonye ko ikibazo cya mbere umusomyi yandikiye ikiganiro “Ask Marilyn” kitigeze kimenyesha neza ko umunyamakuru yagombaga guhindura igisubizo batanze mbere cyangwa niba ari ukwerekana umuryango umwe.
Muri “Let’s Make a Deal”, Monty Hall yabaga yemerewe kubwira abarushanwa guhindura igisubizo batanze cyangwa kudahindura, maze akaba yaranageze kure mubyo yabemereraga, rimwe akemerera amafaranga abarushanwa ababwira kugumana ibyo bahisemo bwa mbere, kandi uko yabemereraga menshi, ni ko yabashukaga maze bagahindura urugi bahisemo mbere maze bagatsindwa.
Kwemerera bose ibihembo bihenze nk’imodoka si yo yari intego y’ikiganiro. Ibintu byose byabaga biri mu maboko ya Monty Hall.
